14 Nov 2017 Risk Appetite Reduced, New Zealand Dollar Inflamed New Zealand's dollar fell back below 69 US cents after risk appetite (investor appetite for riskier assets) and global commodity prices declined as well as growing optimism around US tax reforms. The kiwi dollar dropped to 68.73 US cents ($ 0.6873) in the morning in Wellington from 69.18 cents yesterday. The New Zealand dollar trade-weighted index fell to 73.29 from 73.44. The Chicago Board Options Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the Wall Street "fear" indicator, fell 1.6 percent from a three-week high overnight. The CRB Index, which measures the performance of the 19 most traded commodities, slipped about 0.1 percent. Dairy product prices fell for the third consecutive auction at a GlobalDairyTrade auction last week. Meanwhile, the US dollar was also supported by US President Donald Trump's tweet last night that the US is "getting closer" to tax reform. "The decline in risk appetite has brought commodity currencies under pressure, down overnight," said Doug Steel, an economist at Bank of New Zealand, in a note. "Decreasing risk appetite back to more normal levels is a major downside risk factor for NZD," Steel said. Steel said there was support for the kiwi dollar at 68.20 US cents to 68.40 cents ($ 0.6820 - $ 0.6840) and resistance at around 70.50 cents ($ 0.7050). Traders also appear to react negatively to Australia's October Australian business confidence index and China's retail sales and industrial production figures that are generally less supportive for the Australian and Chinese economies, both of which are New Zealand's largest trading partners. Today traders will also monitor New York Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at the European Central Bank (ECB) panel with colleagues from Europe, Japan and the UK. The kiwi traded at 52.60 US cents from 52.72 pence at the end of yesterday's session. The kiwi rose to 90.44 Australian cents from 90.27 cents, down to 59.11 euro cents from 59.50 cents and trading at 4.5799 yuan from 4.5977 yuan. New Zealand's dollar fell to 78.34 yen from 78.61 yen.
14 Nov 2017 Yen Not Moving, Australian Dollar Rises Despite China Data Not Supporting In today's Asia Pacific money market trading, the general US dollar this time is trying to relieve pressure from major Asian currencies including by the yen where world financial markets see the US economic condition that still too tough compared to other countries in the world ahead of the talk of the chairman of the world central bank later this afternoon. So far the USD / JPY is temporarily at the level of 113.60 which at the previous trading close is at the level of 113.61. For AUD / USD is temporarily at the level of 0.7629 compared to the previous close of trading at the level of 0.7620. Yuan or USD / CNY is temporarily moving at 6.6449 after earlier closing at 6.6552. The strengthening of the greenback is still a big question for investors after the US tax reform issue has been postponed and re-evaluated by the Senate's finance committee to be further matured until next year so that in fiscal year 2019 the fiscal aid package can be implemented so that its gains to the yen are in question investors. Previously many believe that with tax reforms, the US economy will skyrocket, but some also deeply regretted this package of policies, because it can make the government budget deficit skyrocket and tear US government spending that underpins most of the US economy as well as military spending. The geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Korea is not naturally warming this time, so the chance of safe haven curencies itself does not appear to start early last week until now. Indeed, some parties are concerned with political developments in the Middle East that the conflict is likely to occur could cause chaos for the world economic conditions up to 1 year or 2 years into the future. In addition, investors are increasingly convinced by the progress of the Fed rate hike that it will at least rise by 4 more until the US interest rate is normal between 2.5% and 3%, and further increases will see future developments. John Williams, Patrick Harker and Loretta Mester are officials of the Fed who declared it since last week. Markets are also looking forward to the world's monetary policy pronouncements that will be delivered by some of the world's major central bankers such as Mario Draghi, Janet Yellen, Mark Carney and Haruhiko Kuroda. The market is also looking at the economic conditions of China and Australia are less pleased that the movement of the money market is also not too large.
14 Nov 2017 The Momentum of High Oil Prices Looks Soon To End In commodity exchange trading from morning till this afternoon, WTI and Brent oil prices move equally negative where both of these oils seem to be experiencing the moment still not dare to continue buying side which is bigger after worrying about rising US oil production that offsets OPEC activities that could curb world oil supplies. Oil price disparity with WTI oil, which continues to widen by more than $ 6 per barrel, is alleged to be the cause of WTI-based US crude oil production, due to the relatively cheaper price and the safe supply of WTI making it hunted by consumers in Europe and Asia. As we know that since the middle of last year, the production of shale oil has climbed 14% to 9.62 million bpd and is estimated to be more than 10 million bpd in the next 2 years. And Fitch Ratings itself still maintains an average Brent oil price at $ 54.4 a barrel, seeing that the current rise is likely to ease. As a result, the West Texas Intermediate contract price of November on the New York Mercantile Exchange division of the Comex division temporarily weakened $ 0.20 or 0.35% to $ 56.56 a barrel. Brent oil for December contracts on London's ICE Futures market meanwhile was down $ 0.29 or 0.46% at $ 62.87 a barrel. OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo in Abu Dhabi late yesterday said that although US oil supplies are growing, but OPEC's declining oil output and rising world oil demand particularly from Asia and Europe, he believes that world oil supply will soon occupy a balanced portion between request and its offer. OPEC also raised its oil demand forecasts that the world needs OPEC's supply of 33.42 million bpd next year, an OPEC crude oil demand increase of 260,000 bpd earlier and marked the fourth consecutive monthly rise since last July's outlook . In addition, the market is still responding positively to OPEC's desire to reduce world oil supply by a report suggesting that OPEC oil production last week declined again by 90 thousand bpd to 32.57 million bpd. The optimistic that oil prices could still rise on the agenda of the evaluation meeting of the commitment to cut oil production by 1.8 million bpd on Nov 30, will certainly discuss the extension of the commitment until the end of 2018, said OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo.
Canadian retail sales increased during the period of March 2018, even surpassing the forecasts of economists. However, the core sales report went down unexpectedly. It makes the Loonie movement depressed early in the New York session tonight. Canada's Stastistic Department on Friday released Retail Sales data that rose 0.6 percent to 50.2 billion dollars in March, higher than expectations of a 0.3 percent rise by economists in a previous poll. This might effect CAD movement.
