9 Nov 2017 RBNZ Give Hawkish Signal, NZD / USD Racing The Central Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to keep its interest rate level in a monetary policy meeting that results announced Thursday (09 / Nov) this morning. This policy has been expected by the market. However, the RBNZ acknowledges that a number of improvements in certain sectors of the economy are the result of a fall in New Zealand Dollar and rising commodity prices. Nevertheless, the central bank even signaled the need to raise interest rates slightly earlier than expected, along with an upbeat forecast for inflation. "Monetary policy will be maintained accommodative within the required timeframe," said Governor Plt. RBNZ, Grant Spencer. The RBNZ interest rate is maintained at a low of 1.75 percent. However, given the New Zealand Dollar exchange rate sduah slack since last August, if it continues, then tradable inflation could increase and make growth more balanced. New Zealand Dollar Increases In response to this, New Zealand Dollar looks skyrocketed against the US Dollar. NZD / USD soared near its highest level since October 24, and traded in the 0.6964 range as the news was written, leaving the low 0.6914 level formed before the release of the RBNZ meeting. According to Imre Speizer, currency specialist at Westpac, RBNZ clearly shows more hawkish sentiment than market expectations. Therefore, the Kiwi experienced a sharp rally. The New Zealand dollar has plummeted 7 percent since the end of July, while the newly-elected coalition of New Zealand governments is poised to increase spending and investment. This can lead to an increase in inflation coupled with a weakening of growth. Therefore, an increase in interest rates in a faster time is expected to create a balance of New Zealand's economy. Investors and economists predicted most of the RBNZ rate hike will be implemented by the end of 2018.
9 Nov 2017 Trump Visits China To Pursue a Business Agreement Donald Trump along with First Lady Melania Trump arrived in Beijing for her first official visit to China as US president and will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping with a US business delegation and billions of dollars to be agreed upon between the two sides. According to some observers, Trump's visit is so very special and others like the US president who visited Beijing without meeting with Chinese human rights leaders who usually make Beijing sulk. Trump this time it is being focused to congratulate President Xi who has just been re-elected as leader of China. According to US Trade Secretary Wilbur Ross, this time the US wants to repay the favor of China for its efforts to support the US in embargoing North Korea, so North Korea in recent months seems to want to show its pride in the US after the oil embargo and trade embargo Pyongyang- Moscow-Beijing. Ross is actually also watching the unbalanced trade agreement between the US and China, especially after President Trump vetoed China's steel import desire some time ago. The highlighted audience is also the problem of the Pacific trading pact TPP or Trans-Pacific Partnertship, which was initiated with the US when Obama came to power, and the first day Trump became president of the United States, Trump declared the US out of the TPP, so the US has a more free role than ever. Trump's wish sometimes shocked the market, but Ross is pretty sure that Trump's arrival to China this time will bring a positive impact on the US economy in the future. The $ 9 billion corporate transactions yesterday agreed between the US and China, Ross said, waiting to see whether Boeing and the US chemical company DuPont and some US manufacturing companies will also get a trade deal with China or not. Wilbur Ross also stated that addressing imbalances in Chinese trade has been the main focus of collaborative discussions between Trump and Xi Jinping where achieving fair and reciprocal treatment for US-Chinese companies is a common goal. But so far the pessimistic observers that the trade contract that makes the US trade deficit of $ 347 billion is very difficult to reduce. Trump's visit schedule in China is planned until tomorrow.
9 Nov 2017 Post RBNZ Decision, New Zealand Dollar Stay Near The Highest Point 2 Weeks The New Zealand dollar briefly edged up ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy statement this morning which also touched on the stronger inflation path and weaker currency. The New Zealand dollar remained near a two-week high after comments from the country's central bank on the inflation outlook seen as a hawkish tone by the market, although interest rates remain unchanged as expected. Earlier, the New Zealand dollar rose as high as $ 0.6974, its highest level since October 24, then fell off the peak and traded last at $ 0.6960 as the news was written. Provisional official of RBNZ Governor Grant Spencer said that the proposed changes to the government would not affect RBNZ's thinking in the current economic conditions. Spencer kept its official rate unchanged at 1.75 percent this morning but said potential interest rate hikes could be made in June 2019 than previously expected in September 2019. The central bank also raised inflation expectations by taking into account the impact of new government policies and weakening the country's currency. At a press conference this morning, Spencer also directly discussed the government's review of the RBNZ that would make the job sector a special focus of the RBNZ mandate in addition to monitoring inflation. "Switching to a dual mandate is unlikely to have an impact on the way we run monetary policy," Spencer said. Currently, inflation is RBNZ's main goal but not the only goal, Spencer explains. He also acknowledged that a double mandate could mean the bank's approach becomes more flexible in allowing greater inflation volatility to encourage higher employment stability. "But in the current situation, the labor market is well balanced, so I do not think the dual mandate will make a big difference to our policy stance," Spencer said. While forecasts for a rate hike change, Spencer reiterated earlier statements that monetary policy will remain accommodative for long periods of time. "A lot of uncertainty persists and policies may need to adjust it appropriately," Spencer explained.
9 Nov 2017 EUR / USD Potentially Rebound To 1.16440 The EUR / USD currency pair is still moving below the 1.16030 resistance control at yesterday's trading session. Fluctuating below that resistance level, eventually the pair closed neutral. Fundamentals in the euro zone and the EU are still affected by the BREXIT negotiations, namely the UK's exit from the European Union. Some business landscapes, especially the banking sector, have to make adjustments. This is indicated by several financial institutions (including banks) applying for banking licenses to the European Central Bank (ECB). This could mean as a strengthening of the business sector in the EU. Based on the hourly chart, EUR / USD has a chance to continue the rebound. Breaking the resistance level 1.16030 which in yesterday's trading session is still a critical level for this pair. The bullish or rebound target is detected at 1.16185 and 1.16440 levels. While bearish expectation still refers to yesterday's low level 1.15787.
9 Nov 2017 GBP / USD Starts Rebound Again Amid Bearish Sentiment GBP / USD fell back down to the 1.30858 low, almost erasing the gain in two days. Trying to continue the rebound in Asian session yesterday, GBP / USD still failed to break the previous day's highs and resistance level 1.31800. Even the rebound of the motion has not reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall that occurred earlier this month. The British currency, pound sterling, continues to be dominated by bearish sentiment due to the lack of strength in the UK economy and the cautiousness of market participants against the outcome of the BREXIT negotiations. Even the BoE move raises interest rates but gives a dovish tone to the economy, adding to the pessimism of market participants. Based on the hourly chart, GBP / USD started to rebound through the 1.31275 level and make the support level 1.31056 as a foothold. The nearest resistance target is at 1.31467.
9 Nov 2017 Sentiment of the Japanese Economy Is Good, USD / JPY Fall Japan's yen currency strengthened in Asian session, as seen from the USD / JPY pair breaks through the critical level of 113.970 to print the 113.439 low, which is also the support area. This area or level becomes a foothold for a rebound in yesterday's trading session. Some Japanese data including the BoJ's opinion on monetary policy and Economic Sentiment Supervisors released today, were able to bring down USD / JPY. Based on the hourly chart, USD / JPY is likely to test the support level 113.448 again and if it continues then the nearest support target is at 113.146. Whereas if the support level 113.448 holds, then there is a sideways chance for USD / JPY in the 113.448 - 113.664 area in the short term.
9 Nov 2017 Gold Price Not Dare To Move Straight In late afternoon trading on the precious metals commodity in London, it seems that gold is still thin and lacking in spirit to move closer to the psychological level of $ 1300 per ounce, with a tendency to hesitate ahead of US weekly jobless claims data release later in the night. The existence of important economic data from the US tonight will make the December contract gold price in the New York Mercantile Exchange futures division of Comex division to temporarily move up $ 0.80 or 0.06% at $ 1284.50 per ounce level. For December's silver contract price on the Comex temporarily moved down $ 0.03 or 0.19% at $ 17.11 per ounce. Previously according to the World Gold Council that demand for gold in the third quarter and then decreased 9% to 915 tons alone, a smallest third-quarter number since 2009. So far the price of gold has not moved much when President Trump is meeting with President Xi Jinping today so investors have not yet decided to collect the US dollar-based portfolio again or gold because it is still waiting for the results of both sides of the meeting. But at least gold is also not so strong sharp because as we know that Trump visit is also one of the visits to express gratitude US against China who agreed to embargo North Korea a few months ago. The purpose of the embargo is a world-wide effort, especially the United States to dampen the desire of North Korea to develop nuclear technology so that the embargo is quite successful to reduce the desire Pyonyang with evidence of the condition of the Korean Peninsula to this day is still calm. It is also expected that the Trump-Xi meeting will reopen the trade sheets of both sides so there is no suspicion. As we know that Trump has accused China of discriminating its yuan currency so that Chinese imported goods flood the US and US goods are hard to market in China, to the point that Trump vetoed the issue of adding its steel quota to China some time ago. So far, gold itself is not able to move a big positive because it saw the development of US economic data, especially the data of very good labor to help the Fed rate increase despite low inflation always complained some Fed officials themselves. Later that night there is US weekly jobless claims data where as we know last week this data devastated the price of gold. When tonight this data is still better, then certainly gold will fail again to experience strengthening.
10 Nov 2017 Not Brexit, This Another Storm That Will Hit The UK Economy Brexit has been the main point of conversation around the UK economy over the last year. Brexit is clearly having a negative impact on UK growth and position in the global growth standings. Pound sterling has slumped, inflation has soared last month to its highest level in five years, real wage growth has stagnated, and GDP growth has slowed significantly. All of these negative points, if not solely due to the Brexit referendum, must have been aggravated by the provocative of Article 50 which means that the UK officially declares the economic, political and commercial bloc. But, according to an analyst at Pantheon Macroeconomics, another storm is coming and will slow the UK economy, and has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. "The recent surge in oil prices has added to the barriers that will put the [UK] economy on next year," said Samuel Tombs, chief economist at Pantheon UK, in a note dated Nov. 8. In the past month, oil prices have recovered to the highest level in the past two years, with Brent reaching $ 64 a barrel this week, which in the short term is driven by political disputes in Saudi Arabia, which has created market concerns about possible disruptions in the oil market the second largest in the world. According to Tombs, it is bad news for the already fragile UK economy. Effectively, the UK is a net consumer of oil, which means the UK is using more foreign oil than it can produce itself today. "The UK has been a net consumer of oil since 2006, as production from an aging and dried up North Sea field has declined," Tombs wrote. He explained that there was a small revival in UK oil production since 2014, which was facilitated by investments during a three-digit oil price period, which helped little to close the shortage of consumer needs. UK crude oil consumption was 584 million barrels in 2016. Tombs estimates that a $ 10 per barrel increase in Brent crude oil prices in recent weeks will reduce 0.2% of nominal GDP if net consumption remains at a record level in 2016. An increase in oil prices will be a storm for the UK economy as it will weigh on consumers, the biggest driver of the UK economy. But not just consumers who will be hit. The rise of the UK manufacturing sector due to the demands of Brexit-related conditions will also feel a slap from rising oil prices. The manufacturing sector has been boosted by a drop in pound sterling since the Brexit referendum as foreign importers bought more goods from the UK at lower prices. But rising oil prices have the potential to end the revival.
10 Nov 2017 BoE Senior Officials: Banks Can not Wait for Brexit Clarity Until Last Minute One of the most senior Bank of England (BoE) officials has warned that banks will start moving their staff from the UK in the near future unless they gain further clarity on the Brexit transition deal. Speaking to LBC radio station members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Ian McCafferty said that lenders can not wait until the last minute to make decisions about the future of their staff. According to McCafferty, as a result banks will start making decisions early in 2018 unless they see clarity on how the future of the UK-EU financial services landscape will be. "I suspect we will start to see things happen if we do not hear the news next spring," McCafferty said. The banks need to make a final decision about their staff transfer no later than the first quarter of next year. At least banks take a year to set up branches and fully functional subsidiaries in Europe to keep their business activities in the EU from harassment. Without some clarity on future arrangements, banks will use their worst emergency plan, which is generally believed to involve large-scale staff relocation. Under current regulations, the UK is under the jurisdiction of a "financial passport", a set of rules and regulations that enable UK-based finance companies to access customers and conduct business activities across Europe. Many non-EU lenders use the passport to operate a hub in the UK and then sell services across the 28-country bloc. Once the UK leaves the EU, however, it almost certainly loses the right of the financial passport, which is strongly linked to the membership of the European Single Market, a market the UK will leave behind as part of Brexit. This means that in order to continue to provide comprehensive services to clients across the EU after Brexit, many lenders require new branches. McCafferty, one of the most hawkish members of the Bank of England MPC, made the remarks just two days after one of Europe's most senior Central Bank (ECB) figures, Daniele Nouy, said that as many as 20 banks have applied for a new EU banking license they are preparing to shift the landscape of European financial services after Brexit.
10 Nov 2017 US Unemployment Enrollment Increases Rising Over Estimates The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, suggesting that the processing of claims that had been disrupted due to two months of storms is now beginning to improve. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to 239,000 for the week ended Nov. 4, the US Labor Department revealed Thursday. Claims have slipped to 229,000 in the previous week, approaching the lowest level in more than 44 years, and staying well below the 300,000 level is generally considered a healthy labor market signal. Economists forecast the claim to rise to 231,000 in the past week. The claim dropped the most number in nearly three years to reach 298,000 people in early September after the storms that hit the states of Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The US Department of Labor explained that now authorities are processing pending claims in Puerto Rico even though operations in the Virgin Islands are still severely disrupted. US Treasury yields held near Thursday's highs after the data was announced, while the US dollar extended its decline. US stock futures are slightly lower, a day after Wall Street closed at new highs. Last week also became the 139th week in a row where unemployment claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller. The four-week initial claim movement rate, which is considered a better measure of labor market trends as it reduces week-to-week volatility, fell by 1,250, to 231,250 last week, the lowest level since March 31, 1973. It suggests that job sector growth in an economy is perceived to be almost close to full employment, with the unemployment rate at the 17-year low of 4.1 percent. Continuing claims (continuing claims) rose 17,000 to 1.90 million. Economists forecast claims to continue at 1.89 million. The four-week average increase of claims continues to fall by 750, to 1.90 million, the lowest level since Jan. 12, 1974, indicating a continuing decline in labor market clearance.
10 Nov 2017 Fed's Mester: US Interest Rate Increase Should Be Scheduled Shocking news last night came from the US Senate that the timetable for US tax reform or tax cuts should be postponed until next fiscal year 2019. But the world financial market is not too surprised because the Fed does not include its growth projections for the US tax reform issue, so in general the calculation of growth projections of the Fed for 2018 to 2019 did not change as delayed reform of the tax. This was revealed by chairman of the Cleveland Fed branch of the Loretta Mester area last night in an interview with CNBC media. According to Mester, he was worried about the tax reform because by including the component of the fiscal aid package into the Fed's economic performance projection, the economic growth or GDP side could move rapidly, accompanied by the rise in US inflation and rising consumer debt. He was surprised by the results of US economic performance projection schemes that include the new tax element, but he can not be too far and more detailed calculate the projections in the future because of the Trump government itself has not explained in detail how and how the tax cuts are, so it is difficult to know the exact impact to the US economy itself, Mester added last night. Luckily also according to Mester that in the last interest rate meeting, the Fed did not include this tax element into the future calculation of the Fed so according to Mester's should the Fed interest rate is still rising gradually until 2019 later. Mester who has no voting rights in the FOMC meeting argues that the Fed's gradual rise in rates is the best way to tackle US inflation and support its economy. Where with the gradual rise, then the US economic expansion can still be extended. So far, according to Mester, the US central bank has always revised its projection if the key US economic data changes that view. In October, the Federal Reserve sees that the US economy has been growing steadily and there are suggestions that another rate hike could take place in December. The US central bank has also begun reducing the central bank's $ 4.5 trillion balance of deficit under its quantitative easing program in a bid to normalize US monetary policy. While the rise in oil prices could push inflation higher, Mester does not need to worry about because the Fed sees whether this could directly change the inflation target on a sudden basis. If so then the Fed should recalculate it.
13 Nov 2015 US Dollar Increases Pressure on Sterling As UK Politics worsens The greenback continues to show its strength against the pound sterling in session earlier this week. The pound collapsed following news reports late last week that UK Prime Minister Theresa May could face leadership challenges as the Brexit talks are at a critical stage. The US dollar also strengthened against a number of major currencies. GBP / USD fell 0.9% to 1.3062 at 16.45 GMT, retreating from a one-week peak of 1.3229 touched on Friday after aided by better-than-expected UK manufacturing data. Sterling was forced to move lower after news over the weekend mentions that forty members of parliament from the Conservative Party have agreed to sign a letter of disbelief at Prime Minister May, a move that will prepare a platform for formal leadership challenges. The pound came under additional pressure after UK Brexit Secretary David Davis on Sunday said that the UK does not need to give a figure or nominal for a financial settlement with the EU, which highlights the lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. The euro finally climbed to a more than a week high against sterling, with EUR / GBP up 0.6% to £ 0.8895. However the euro weakened against the US dollar, with EUR / USD sliding 0.24% to $ 1.1638. The US Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.23% at 94.52 as investors remained focused on the development of the US tax reform process. The index closed last week down 0.55% amid investor disappointment that the proposed US corporate tax cuts plan could be postponed until 2019 instead of enacting this year or next year. The Republican Senate announced a tax plan on Thursday that was different from that made by the House of Representatives, highlighting the challenge of eliminating the differences between the two plans with a short time before the deadline they had set to deliver. Expectations of tax reform have helped boost the dollar since mid-September. Some traders believe that tax reforms can boost growth, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon, known as "Trumpflation" trading. The dollar weakened against the yen, with USD / JPY down to 113.48 yen. The Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened against the greenback, with AUD / USD down 0.16% to $ 0.7648 and NZD / USD losing 0.27% to trade at $ 0.6919.
13 Nov 2017 Brexit Back Buntu, GBPUSD Target Support 1.3053 GBP / USD triggered bullish on the weekend, triggered by the UK economic data and the weakening US dollar. A bullish move to break the critical level 1.3162 and hit a high of 1.3228, which also became the highest weekly level. But at the end of last week, again came the bad news from Brexit talks that showed signs of deadlock. Investors always respond bearish if there is news of Brexit negotiation deadlock. Based on the hourly chart, GBP / USD is mired in Asian session this morning. This is in response to the Brexit negotiations which still have not found a point of agreement between the two parties regarding the amount of compensation to be paid by the UK. The bearish movement of GBP / USD is targeting or testing the support at 1.3093 and if this level is penetrated then the next support target is 1.3053. While the resistance level is at 1.3162.
13 Nov 2017 Gold Price Still Reluctant to Do Large Buyback In early Monday morning trading on precious metals commodities in London, it seems that gold is still moving thin and lacking in spirit to move closer back to the psychological level of $ 1300 per roy ounce, with the trend a hesitation in the past weekend that a mysterious sell-off takes place within 10 minutes. US financial markets last week and the lack of important US economic data today, led to December contract prices on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, temporarily moving up $ 2.90 or 0.23% at $ 1277.10 a troy ounce. For December silver contract price on the Comex temporarily moved up $ 0.04 or 0.23% at $ 16.91 a troy ounce. So far, gold itself is not able to move a large positive because it saw the development of US economic data, especially economic growth data that greatly helped increase the Fed's interest rates despite low inflation always complained some officials of the Fed itself. Later that night there is no US economic data so today there seems to be sides buyback for a moment earlier this week. In addition, the condition of tax reform delayed until next year gives a bit of an effect or opportunity for gold to move freely, but it is understandable that the Fed itself does not include this fiscal aid factor in the future projection of the US economy so that the rising interest rates of The The Fed certainly will not be naturally delayed so this also becomes a barrier for gold to strengthen further. Some Fed officials themselves say that the Fed's rate hike chance so far could rise by about 4 times to immediately at normal interest rates between 2.5% and 3%. Loretta Mester, John Williams and Patrick Harker also stated the same thing that until 2018, the Fed will not mengamodasikan other monetary policy except the increase in interest rates. Factor of President Trump's visit to some Asia is so far worried about many parties, especially non-US parties, because Trump's visit last week allegedly provides many opportunities for growth and development of business and the US economy more rapidly with the new tax reform delayed. This opportunity is indeed welcomed by foreign investors because of the addition of import duties to the US has not been done and make their efforts a little wind to increase profits. It is not good news for the share of the US government budget because its revenue has not been able to increase so that US government spending to support the pace of GDP is also limited.
13 Nov 2017 USD / JPY Seeks Toward the South Again Supported Data USD / JPY at the end of last week still move consolidation within the range 113.30 - 113.69. Until it closed up slightly at the level of 113.51. There has been no significant moves from Japan's domestic data. However, the strengthening of the Japanese yen, which means bearish on the USD / JPY pair is due to good Japan Economic Sentiment data. The movement of USD / JPY in Asian session this morning is still consolidating in the range 113.57 - 113.69 and followed by bearish below the support level 113.57 and 113.44. Today data PPI and Machine Tool Orders are also increasing which gives the Japanese yen strength. Based on the hourly chart, there is still a bearish chance to test the support level 113.30 to last week's low of 113.08. In this support area, we expect a potential rebound as this area is met by the buyer. The target of the rebound was detected at the 113.44 level.
13 Nov 2017 Oil Prices Strengthen At Early Week, Worry about Middle East Tension In commodity stock trading from morning to late afternoon today, WTI and Brent oil prices are both equally positive where both of these oils seem to be experiencing moments still not daring to continue a bigger buying side after worrying about rising US oil production despite OPEC believes it could limit world oil supplies. OPEC secretary general Mohammad Barkindo in Abu Dhabi earlier this morning said that although US oil supplies are growing, but OPEC's declining oil output and rising world oil demand particularly from Asia and Europe, he believes that world oil supply will soon occupy a balanced portion between request and its offer. Baler Hughes reported last week that the number of US refineries has been successfully reactivated by a total of 9 pieces, totaling a total of 738 oil refineries, the highest number since June this year. As we know that since the middle of last year, the production of shale oil has climbed 14% to 9.62 million bpd and is estimated to be more than 10 million bpd in the next 2 years. Oil price disparity with WTI oil, which continues to widen by more than $ 6 a barrel, is alleged to be the cause of WTI-based US crude oil production, due to the relatively cheaper price and the safe supply of WTI making this oil being hunted by consumers in Europe and Asia. As a result, the West Texas Intermediate contract price of November on the New York Mercantile Exchange division of the Comex division temporarily rose $ 0.06 or 0.11% to $ 56.80 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent oil contracts in December on the ICE Futures London market while rising $ 0.08 or 0.13% at $ 63.60 a barrel. So far Brent prices have skyrocketed near a 40% rise since the start of the year with the trigger from Saudi Arabia as the biggest Brent oil producer no 2 after Russia. The efforts of Saudi Arabian crown prince Mohammed bin Salman or MBS to 'clean up' the Saudi government from corruption, have made Brent prices soaring. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East resonate with the stronger oil prices, where Brent oil rose after Saudi Arabia decided to begin reducing its oil exports next month by 120,000 bpd. This decision was taken as a form of anticipation of mounting Saudi Arabia's tensions with Iran after the Saudi government warned its citizens not to visit Lebanon indefinitely. In addition, the market is still responding positively to OPEC's desire to reduce world oil supply by a report suggesting that OPEC oil production last week declined again by 90 thousand bpd to 32.57 million bpd. The optimist that oil prices could still rise on the agenda of the evaluation meeting of the commitment to cut oil production by 1.8 million bpd on Nov 30, will certainly discuss the extension of that commitment by the end of 2018, said OPEC secretary general Mohammad Barkindo.
13 N ov 2017 USD / CAD Stay Moving Reluctantly, Abiding on the Trend Line From Friday until early this afternoon the Canadian dollar held near a two-week high against the US currency, benefiting from recent oil price hikes and a weaker dollar last week . The dollar added last week's losses against a basket of major currencies, pressured by investor disappointment that US tax bill might be delayed until 2019. Meanwhile, US crude oil prices ended 0.3 percent lower at $ 56.84 a barrel after a report showed that US drillers added the most oil rig in a week since June. But on a weekly basis the price of crude oil ended up more than 2 percent. Perspectives of Technical Analysis USD / CAD As seen on the daily chart, USD / CAD is still moving slightly above the uptrend trendline which serves as a strong and important support for the medium term trend, now at 1.2675, which is not easy to break through without a very strong bearish momentum. USD / CAD started moving up as the analysis was written and potentially to immediately test the resistance at 1.2700 and 1.2735.
14 Nov 2017 UK Political Chaotic and Trump Comments Help US Dollar Strengthen The US dollar traded higher against a basket of currencies on Monday on the back of a pound sterling slump amid reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is scheduled to face a temporary leadership challenge of positive comments on tax reforms President Donald Trump lifted sentiment on the greenback. The US Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.16% to 94.45. Sterling slumped to a one-week low against the dollar after news reports that dozens of Conservative PM May members have agreed to sign a declaration or vote of no confidence in the prime minister because they doubt the ability of May's PM to lead the UK out of the EU by bagging a success, especially on trade. At Monday's close, GBP / USD ended down 0.63% to $ 1.3118. EUR / GBP closed yesterday's session at £ 0.8895 or 0.63% higher than last closing ago. Another factor that also adds to the strength of the US dollar is a tweet from US President Donald Trump where he says he is "proud" of MPs as he is "closer" to approval of tax bill. Trading volume was mild on Monday as investors were cautious on a busy week. Just today on the economic calendar there are some important data and agendas related to global monetary policy because the central bankers of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and BoJ are scheduled to deliver their speeches in the afternoon. President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and BoE Governor Mark Carney will form a panel at a conference hosted by the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany. In addition there are a number of important data from Australia, China, Germany, UK will be released from morning until late afternoon. Later in the evening, market attention will be absorbed by US PPI data that will be linked to the Fed's monetary policy prospects.
14 Nov 2017 Canadian Dollar Subjects to US Dollar Early in the Week The Canadian dollar pared some of its recent gains on the US currency as investors turned their attention on the start of NAFTA renegotiations and data showed that speculators have cut the gamble bullish on the Canadian currency. On Nov. 7, the net long positions of the Canadian dollar had dropped to 50,889 contracts from 57,839 a week earlier, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Reuters calculations. In October, the bullish position had reached 76,392 contracts, the highest in five years. The fifth round of NAFTA renegotiations is scheduled to take place between 17 and 21 November in Mexico City. "NAFTA's concerns are becoming more relevant to investors and currency traders," said Scott Smith, managing partner at Viewpoint Investment Partners. According to Smith, the market may see little negative bias towards the Canadian dollar until there is certainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations. Canada sends about 75 percent of its exports to the United States and its economy can be severely disrupted if NAFTA is disbanded. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is worried about the trade uncertainty when it keeps its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1 percent in October, after raising it in July and September for the first time in seven years. Canada's October inflation report, scheduled to be announced on Friday, may strengthen the cautious tone of Canada's central bank. Economists expect the annual inflation rate to drop to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in September. Meanwhile, the oil exchanges, one of Canada's major exports, are still potentially rising by tensions in the Middle East and posting record buying positions from investment managers. Settlement of US crude oil prices 2 cents higher at $ 56.76 a barrel, according to Reuters data. But currently little chances for the Canadian dollar are closely linked to oil prices even as the outlook for interest rates is increasingly foggy, given that crude oil trade is far from the price level needed to affect investment in Canada's energy sector, economists and market strategists say.
14 Nov 2017 Pound Buying Position Will Not Be Distracted By Mosi Not Believe PM May The movement of the British currency, pound sterling, in a few days this trade could be a month-monthly world financial markets with the urgency of the presence of Prime Minister Theresa May threatened removed by the British parliament due to his inability in running the mandate of the suffering of the British people. But this is according to some of the world's money market analysts seem only in the big scale just so that the fluctuation in cable. The pound or cable is down almost 1% today after a report from the British Sunday Times media that there are 40 members of the Conservative Party's parliament have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence to PM May. The question of analysts is whether this is a real political voice or a fundamental change to replace the head of British government with a new one because the shift of PM May some time has failed, senior economist from Barenberg, Kallum Pickering, told CNBC. The mistrust of PM May initially showed 35 people, then last Monday to 40 and needed 48 votes to oust PM May. This condition is a continuation of efforts to attack PM May because it has not managed to overcome the Brexit negotiations which until now still has not found a bright spot for the future of Britain itself, accompanied also the emergence of several cases of sexual abuse of members of the cabinet PM May. According to lawmakers who submitted this motion see the slow process of Brexit and EU demands for greater detail on issues such as UK financial commitments, European workers' rights and the Irish border to date have not been met. The weakening of the pound was also exacerbated by the BoE rate hike that seemed to be a mere symbolic activity. Some economists have obviously suggested that Britain could survive this political turmoil by immediately committing to pay for Britain's divorce with the EU, so it does not require a new government leader for Britain. So far, some of the world's economists have told investors that the pound sterling is still undervalued compared to the real condition of the UK economy itself, so the chances of a political turmoil that can sink its currency are only temporary, and can recover quickly if the Brexit problem can reached an agreement before the end of this year.
