6 Nov 2017 Yen Weaken For a Minute Although BoJ's Notes Expect Expectations The BoJ meeting minutes released on Monday (06 / November) said one of the central bank's officials said that yield curve policy alone is not enough to achieve 2 percent inflation. Because there is an excess in capital stock supply as well as the result of sales tax increase plan again in 2019. yen-japan Still in the minutes of the meeting that took place on September 20-21, the official added that an increase in demand is needed to achieve the two percent inflation target. In response, some members of the BoJ said that what the central bank needed was to avoid functional inhibiting of the financial system while implementing its current monetary policy. Nevertheless, the result of a more recent BoJ meeting, a meeting held on 30-31 October, a BoJ official named Goushi Kataoka, said that the BoJ should signal the possibility of raising the stimulus if there is a delay in achieving the inflation target. In addition, Kataoka is also pessimistic about the chance of achieving the 2 percent BoJ inflation target. This pessimistic view is also shared by the Governor of BoJ, Haruhiko Kuroda. From a Reuters report, Kuroda said that the BoJ is still far from the two percent inflation target. He acknowledged that it is important for people to really feel the inflation conditions above two percent. Therefore, the BoJ still needs to continue its loose monetary policy. Trader USD / JPY Put Stop Loss Despite nothing new from today's BoJ meeting minutes, USD / JPY was pushed up to 114,500 and triggered stop loss action as a consequence. When this news was written at 14:22 GMT, USD / JPY is trading at 114.36, down from the level reached some time after the minutes were released.
6 Nov 2017 Dollar Starts Week At High Level, Ignore US NFP The US dollar was up against major currencies, and had headed for an eight-month high against the Japanese yen in trading session Monday (06 / November) earlier this week. The trigger is the divergence of monetary policy of the US central bank and Japan's central bank is increasingly tenuous, following the BoJ policy minutes released this morning. dollar-as Had touched a high level of 114.50 yen, the US Dollar slashed its gains so that USD / JPY traded at 114.5 yen afterwards. In the minutes of BoJ meetings held on September 20-21 it was mentioned that Japan still needs a Yield Curve Control policy and a loose monetary policy to boost inflation. Instead, the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the third time by the end of the year. Against this backdrop, according to analyst Peter Dragicevich of Nomura Singapore, some market participants are focusing that USD / JPY has a chance to touch the 115.0 level. "If we can touch that level, then I think it will open the door for (USD / JPY) to rise even higher," Dragicevich said. The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the US Dollar against the other six major currencies, was 94.919, nearing a high of 95,150, the highest since July 200. Ignore the US NFP Under Expectations The US dollar was moderately tough even though the October NonFill Payroll (NFP) figure, reported late last week, was below expectations. Wage growth was recorded slowed down. However, analysts are optimistic that US employee salaries will rise and markets will not alter their expectations of a Fed rate hike next month. According to analyst Shinichiro Kadota from Barclays, US data yesterday is still within a reasonable range, given the data is the post-hurricane data in the US. Therefore, the US Dollar remained resilient thereafter. EUR / USD declines to 1.1608 from the previous level of 1.1616. In the short term, analysts expect that market participants will oversee the progress of US tax reform and US President Donald Trump's visit to Asia.
7 Nov 2017 Sterling Strengthens But Remains Uncertainty of Brexit Negotiation On Monday, the pound sterling pared some of its earlier losses after slipping against the US dollar for three straight weeks, but any strong currency gains could be hampered by continued uncertainty surrounding the Brexit talks and instability in the Conservative Party that is ruling the UK. Investors are monitoring the negotiations surrounding the future UK relationship with the European Union because of the impact not only on business confidence and economic growth but also further interest rate hikes after the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates last week. BoE's Governor Mark Carney said on Thursday that the bank is planning further interest rate hikes in the next three years, but the results of the Brexit talks remain a factor in shaping future interest rate policies. "All current BoE assumptions are based on a smooth transition Brexit," said Craig Erlam, a market analyst at foreign exchange trading firm OANDA. "So, if we are having trouble, it will be negative for the pound, as it will be potential that two interest rate increases may not materialize," Erlam added. Sterling ended up 0.76 percent against the US dollar on Monday at $ 1.3174, after falling for three straight weeks. Sterling also weighed on the euro so the EUR / GBP pair ended down 0.73 percent at £ 0.8813. The most powerful business lobby group in the UK urged UK Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday to provide clarity on how Brexit will work, but PM May responded with little details other than repeating plans to seek a transitional deal as soon as possible. The group, Confederation of British Industry (CBI), said on Sunday that nearly two out of three UK firms will have an emergency plan in March to prepare for the likelihood that the UK leaves the EU without any deal (Brexit deal). The UK will enter the next round of the Brexit negotiations by the end of this week, where an important topic of its future trade relations with the EU will be discussed for the first time. However, the process enters a period of instability, as Westminster is also being troubled by a sexual harassment scandal that led to the resignation of a high-profile figure, threatening the position of the vast majority of PM May's political power.
7 Nov 2017 Saudi Arabia's Cabinet Clean Up 3% In earlier trading, oil prices closed higher with Brent and WTI oil in areas that did not happen since July 2015 or more than two years ago with the help of a few OPEC members' commitment to extend the timing of oil production restrictions of 1.8 million bpd a decline in US oil refiners last week after Saudi Arabia's parliament clean-up of corruption. As a result, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil in November on the New York Mercantile Exchange division of the Comex division temporarily rose $ 1.61, or 2.89%, at $ 57.25 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent oil contracted in December on the ICE Futures London market while rising $ 2.08 or 3.35% at $ 64.15 a barrel. The Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman or MBS, has further strengthened himself as a potential ruler of Saudi Arabia later after arresting some of his cabinet ministers who stumbled on corruption and terrorism financing, so the oil market welcomes positively, as the MBS strongly supports the restriction of world oil supplies oil prices keep rising. Saudi Arabian capitalization does have a purpose to secure the plan of the world's largest oil producer from Arab origin, Saudi Aramco who will conduct its IPO in 2018 later. President Trump on Saturday's visit also wants Saudi Aramco stocks to be traded on Wall Street. In addition to MBS, which supports an extension of time of world oil production cuts of 1.8 million bpd, Nigeria has also agreed, although Nigeria has not participated to cut its oil production. The Arab oil minister, Khalid al-Falih also confirmed that almost all countries that participate in a 1.8 million bph trimming commitment have agreed to extend the cuts. While the level of compliance of OPEC oil production cuts and the other 11 countries, increased from 86% to 92%, and increased compliance is somewhat influenced by the conflict in the Kurds. OPEC production fell 80 thousand bpd to 32.78 million bp while Russian oil production was still 300 thousand bpd below its target of 11.277 bpd. And it is certain that the agenda at the evaluation meeting of the commitment to cut oil production by 1.8 million bpd on November 30, will certainly address the extension of that commitment by the end of 2018. US oil production is also expected to decline after Baker Hughes last week announced that the number of US refineries has reduced the number of active 8 rigs to 729, the smallest number since May. Most of the refineries are disabled because they go into maintenance during winter.
7 Nov 2017 MBS Action Sustains Gold Price Gold prices climbed considerably on Monday, surpassing the sideways range of movement over the previous nine trading sessions. MetaTrader data used by the FS88 Research Division team showed earlier this week gold prices rose to as high as $ 1282.70 and ended $ 1281.75, up 0.94% compared to Friday's close. Gold prices traded higher on Monday as political uncertainty in the Middle East triggered demand for safe-haven assets. Gold prices made a strong start this week as investors soon piling up investments in precious metals amid growing political uncertainty in the Middle East after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) led an anti-corruption operation resulting in a series of arrests of prominent figures leading in Saudi Arabia including some princes such as Al-Waleed bin Talal who became the richest man in the kingdom. "We have political uncertainty, the risk of political instability in this major oil-producing country (Saudi Arabia) as well as unforeseen implications for the whole region," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. Another factor that also adds to the burden for the US dollar is the uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's leadership after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York confirmed that William (Bill) Dudley is preparing to retire earlier than planned in mid-2018 while his term ends in January 2019. The price of gold is sensitive to the movement of the US dollar with a lower greenback value can make gold cheaper for the holders of foreign currencies, thus increasing demand. Although data last week showed market participants raised their bullish position in precious metals, traders predicted gold prices would remain tied with a bias against the downside. Net long positions on gold rose to 193,100 from 191,400 in the previous week, according to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. "Speculative financial investors are still withdrawing from gold," said Commerzbank analyst.
7 Nov 2017 RBA Unchanged Interest Rates, Australian Dollar Stable The Australian dollar was steady at high levels that formed yesterday, marked by a slight increase against the US Dollar in trading session Tuesday (07 / Nov) this afternoon post RBA monetary policy. The Australian Central Bank, as expected, retained its interest rate. They also revealed that the current focus would be on staff salaries and home prices. dollar-australia AUD / USD posted a super-thin, 0.03 percent rise to 0.7694 just after RBA released its policy. The pair then slipped to 0.7684 when the news was written at 11:15. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) RBA rate is still held at the 1.50 percent level in November 2017 and is a record low in 14 consecutive months. RBA is still struggling with the prediction that Australia's economic growth will rise about 3 percent in the next few years. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is currently at the 5.5 percent level. "Currently, inflation will remain low for some time, reflecting the slow pace of employee wage growth and heightened competitive pressure, especially in retail sales," RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in today's monetary policy statement. "People's income grew slowly and debt levels are still high." This means, the RBA certainly does not give the impression of wanting to raise interest rates immediately. As the central bank stresses, monetary policy in other central banks of other developed countries will not affect RBA policy. As soon as Consolidation Ends, Aussie Continue Downtrend Therefore, analysts expect the Australian Dollar to remain in a downtrend mode, especially in today's daily range. According to DailyFX records, AUD / USD has been downtrend since September 20, and in wider coverage, the downtrend occurs after a high level formed on September 8th. Technical analyst DailyFX estimates that AUD / USD will be in the consolidation range between 0.7729-0.7624 in high and low intraday points. If the consolidation period is completed, the downtrend will likely continue.
7 Nov 2017 Dudley's Early Pension Raises Questions around the Fed's Leadership On Monday the Federal Reserve of New York confirmed that William Dudley, one of the most influential monetary policymakers throughout the financial crisis and afterwards, hopes to retire early in mid-2018, raising other questions about leadership in the US central bank less than a week after US President Donald Trump elects the new Fed chairman. Dudley, now 64, is one of the strongest supporters of the central bank's move to create unprecedented monetary stimulus in the past decade and a steady official in difficult market operations will quit the central bank before his presidency officially ends in January 2019. The New York Fed Board said that its search committee has started its work, and aims to determine who Dudley's successor is by the middle of next year. The announcement, reported by Reuters on Sunday, accelerated a revolution in the Fed's leadership that could improve a cautious approach to raising interest rates and to reduce some of the $ 3.5 trillion bonds it buys to stimulate the economy in the face of crisis and recession during 2007-2009. Trump, a Republican who sought to ease tight central bank finances while keeping interest rates low, on Thursday appointed Fed Governor Jerome Powell as a substitute for Janet Yellen when his term ends in February. This decision broke the precedent that the Fed chairman will have a period of at least two periods. The White House has a tremendous opportunity to reshape the Fed with three seats on a seven-strong Board of Governors board, and four when Yellen retires next year. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and top bank oversight official Daniel Tarullo resigned earlier this year as the Fed reshuffle continued after the US presidential election last year. Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, explained that Powell's work to overhaul the ranks of Fed officials is now easier. According to Hooper, the New York Fed president is an important part of the Fed's monetary and regulatory policy. He added that Trump's choice of Powell and not a reform-minded candidate for the new Fed chairman, may have been Dudley's motivation for early retirement.
7 Nov 2017 Oil Prices Still at Highest Level In commodity exchange trading from morning to afternoon this weekend, WTI and Brent oil prices move equally very thinly where both types of oil is still at the highest level for more than 2 years. News of the Saudi cabinet that had been cleared by the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman over the weekend and made a good situation for the oil itself, where the MBS crown prince (Mohammed bin Salman) strongly supports OPEC's efforts to continue curbing world oil supplies in order not to over-demand . Not long ago, Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih also stated that Saudi Arabia wants to extend that time. Meanwhile, Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi and Nigeria's oil minister also aligned with al-Falih that Iraq and Nigeria agreed with the extension. Iraq and Saudi Arabia have half the total output of OPEC members. Meanwhile, Kuwait's oil minister Issam Almarzoog also agreed with the extension effort. Last week OPEC secretary general Mohammad Barkindo stated that the agenda at the evaluation meeting of the commitment to cut oil production by 1.8 million bpd on Nov. 30 would certainly address the extension of that commitment by the end of 2018. The market is highly optimistic that oil prices will rise as it will continue to cut down on oil production, as it also reports that the level of compliance with OPEC oil production cuts and the other 11 countries, has increased from 86% to 92%, and this compliance increase has been somewhat affected by the conflict in Kurdish. OPEC production fell 80 thousand bpd to 32.78 million bp while Russian oil production was still 300 thousand bpd below its target of 11.277 bpd. As a result, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil in November contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange temporarily weakened $ 0.07 or 0.12% to $ 57.28 per barrel. Brent oil for December contracts on London's ICE Futures market meanwhile was down $ 0.04 or 0.06% at $ 64.23 a barrel. US oil production also seems to be shrinking although price disparities of both types of oil are still widening. This was after Baker Hughes last week announced that the number of US refineries has reduced the number of active 8 rigs to 729, the smallest number since May. Most of the refineries are disabled because they go into maintenance during winter.
8 Nov 2017 Oil Price Not Power to Face Action Take Profit In earlier trading, oil prices eventually also fell to end with a weakening after the previous oil prices Brent and WTI are in an area that has not happened since June 2015 or 2 years more with small frictions that occur between Saudi Arabia with Iran that makes investors oil is concerned with the geopolitical side. As a result, the West Texas Intermediate contract price of December on the New York Mercantile Exchange division of the Comex division temporarily fell $ 0.38, or 0.66%, at $ 56.98 a barrel. Brent oil for January contracts on London's ICE Futures market meanwhile was down $ 0.71 or 1.10% at $ 63.56 a barrel. The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman or MBS, who strongly supports the restriction of world oil supplies to keep oil prices up, has wiped out Saudi Arabia's cabinet, but it seems Iran is not pleased with this MBS movement so it sends little warning to MBS, and the market responded with a profit-taking action worried about a disruptive 1.8 million bpd oil production cuts program. The agenda at the evaluation meeting of the commitment to cut oil production by 1.8 million bpd on Nov. 30, will certainly address the extension of the commitment by the end of 2018, said OPEC secretary general Mohammad Barkindo. In addition, Barkindo stated that it would invite other countries that had not previously joined the commitment to be invited to Vienna as well. But Saudi Arabia's attempt to persuade Brazil as the biggest oil producer in Latin America has failed to take part in the commitment so the market responds with the oil selling side. Although Baker Hughes last week announced that the number of US refineries has reduced the number of active 8 rigs to 729, the smallest number since May, but according to the EIA that US oil production will still increase this time in the future. EIA expects its oil production to rise 720 thousand bpd to 9.95 million bpd by 2018, up from 668 thousand bpd to 9.92 million bpd last week, and forecast the average WTI price to rise 0.9% to $ 51, 04 per barrel. While the API earlier this morning stated that US oil inventories fell 1.562 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories rose 520 thousand barrels, diesel and fuel oil stocks decreased 3.133 million barrels. According to the World Oil Outlook report until 2040, oil demand will rise an annual average of 1.2 million bpd from 95.4 million bpd to 102.3 million bpd.
8 Nov 2017 Canadian Dollar Depressed After Comments Poloz The Canadian dollar weakened against the US currency on Tuesday as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz maintained a neutral tone over interest rate movements in speeches and press conferences held earlier this morning in Indonesia. MetaTrader data used by the FS88 Research Division team showed on Tuesday the USD / CAD pair rose (weakened the Canadian dollar against the US dollar) to $ 1.2817 and closed positively at $ 1.2773 or up 0.57 percent compared with the previous session closing at $ 1, 2701. Speaking in Montreal, Poloz maintained the use of the inflation target and repeated the central bank's message that it would continue to monitor growth and wage inflation and the ability of the Canadian economy to see how the economy adjusted to interest rate hikes in July and September. Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York, argues that Poloz's comments really show that the obstacles in monetary policy in the near future are big obstacles. "At the same time, I'm still a bit optimistic that data is developing rather constructively," Issa says. The BoC is expected to keep interest rates steady in December following a second rise in September. But data on Friday showing unexpected strength in the country's job market has supported expectations of an interest rate hike next year. Meanwhile the US dollar rebounded against a basket of major currencies as investors' spotlight was on the difference in monetary policy between the US and the euro zone. Another factor that also weighs on the Canadian dollar is profit taking on oil trading. Oil prices fell slightly after a rally of around three per cent on Monday at the time boosted by a Saudi crown prank that strengthened its grip on power in the kingdom as well as heightened tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The price of WTI crude ended at $ 56.93 a barrel, down 0.54 percent from Monday's close. On Wednesday morning the price of the commodity was moving at $ 57.08.
8 Nov 2017 JOLTs Help Dollar End Positive The US dollar remained higher on Tuesday boosted by a rise in labor market power as job data in September topped economists' expectations. The US Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against trade-weighted six major currencies, rose 0.22% to 94.83. The latest US Labor Department report of Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs), a measure of labor demand, showed job vacancies in September rose to around 6.1 million, beating expectations of 6.091 million. But the US dollar pared some of its gains after the data as traders prepared to hear US President Donald Trump's speech on North Korea scheduled for Wednesday. Trump will use the speech to close his visit to South Korea before flying to Beijing on Wednesday as part of a 12-day Asia tour. Nevertheless, the greenback's pullback from yesterday's session high point remained confined amid signs of progress on tax reform efforts. From the money market, the net short positions of the US dollar, coming from the net spot of speculators at the International Monetary Market of the yen, euro, pound sterling, Swiss franc and the Canadian and Australian dollars, were $ 3.37 billion, in the week to 31 October, compared with net short positions at $ 8.02 billion in the previous week. Meanwhile in Europe yesterday, upbeat retail sales data failed to help the euro rise from selling pressure while better-than-expected UK housing data had little impact on pound sterling. In addition to China's trade balance data, there are still some data today but are not so important and rarely lead to significant market movements. This afternoon from Japan will be released data leading indicators, later tonight there are data housing starts and building permits from Canada. From the US there is no data at all other than crude oil inventories.
8 Nov 2017 RBA Still Consistent with Plan of Two Interest Rate Increases Next Year At first glance, the November Reserve Bank of Australia's November Bank monetary policy statement indicates that interest rates will remain unchanged for some time, the tone of the RBA statement actually only continuing the pattern seen since September last year, which continues to show that the RBA will raise two interest rates next year. According to the RBA "Bias Index" (Index of Biases) from ANZ, while slightly less hawkish than the statements issued earlier this year, comments from the latest RBA continue to show the possibility that the bank will begin normalizing policy arrangements next year. The Bias Index uses an algorithm to scan each RBA statement to indicate whether the RBA is hawkish or dovish in its statement. Despite not having a perfect relationship with interest rate movements, this index is a useful indicator of what the country's central bank might do in the future. "The indicator continues to show a two-level rise next year, albeit slightly down," said Felicity Emmett and Giulia Lavinia Specchia, ANZ economists. "We think partly because market price shifts have shown how the market looks at certain words," they said. In recent months financial markets have lowered their expectations for RBA rate hikes following weak data on retail sales and inflation in Australia. Just a few months ago the market forecasted two interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each by 2018. But now the market forecast is a new 25 basis point increase to occur in early 2019. While the market thinks the RBA will likely last throughout 2018, ANZ, as well as its Bias Index, still expects the interest rate to rise twice next year. "We continue to expect the Bank (RBA) to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May next year, and then raise again in the second half of 2018," said Emmett and Specchia. "While recent weaknesses in retail sales and inflation show that tighter policies are somewhat far behind, our main view is that by the middle of next year the outlook for growth will be strong enough to drive the decline in the unemployment rate and ultimately drive the rate increase wages and price inflation, "the two economists explained. "The RBA's increasing focus on financial stability shows us that the bank will bring interest rates up from the historical low today a little earlier than the previous cycle, as long as the bank feels confident that inflation is heading in the right direction," ANZ economists the. In the last paragraph of the November statement, the RBA said that, "holding an unchanging monetary policy stance ... will be consistent with sustained economic growth and reaching inflation targets over time."
8 Nov 2017 ECB Senior Officials: 20 Banks Appeal for EU New Banking Licenses For Preparation for Brexit One of the most senior figures of the European Central Bank (ECB) said that as many as 20 lending institutions have applied for a new European Union (EU) banking license as they prepare to shift the landscape of European financial services after Brexit. Speaking on Tuesday (7/11), Daniele Nouy said that nearly two dozen applications for licenses "have been assessed" after a majority of UK people's decision last year decided to leave the EU. "There are about 20 [banks] that have something that has been assessed," said Nouy, Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board, according to a report from the Financial Times. "Maybe they have not signed it yet, but they've made a fairly comprehensive application that can be formalized (equipped) very quickly," Nuoy explained. Under current regulations, the UK is under the jurisdiction of the so-called "financial passport", a set of provisions and regulations that allow UK-based financial companies to access customers and conduct activities across Europe. Many non-EU lenders use the passport to operate a hub in the UK and then sell services across the 28-country bloc. But soon after the UK leaves the EU, it almost certainly loses the passport right, which is strongly linked to the membership of the European Single Market, a market the UK will leave behind as a consequence of Brexit. As a result, major lenders, especially those from the United States and Japan, are tidying up and preparing to set up a new center in the European continent so that they can continue to serve their customers in Europe without disruption. The banks need at least a year to set up fully functioning branches and subsidiaries in Europe to maintain their business activities, thus starting the process from now on. Nouy is the Head of Single Supervisory Mechanism, which has ultimate supervision to grant banking licenses to all member states of the eurozone, and as a result it becomes the body with the greatest authority in the new licenses that banks need after Brexit. Major lenders are expected to relocate their staff from the UK as a result of Brexit, with Japanese banks being the fastest in the preparation. The four major Japanese banks MUFG, Nomura, Daiwa and Sumitomo Mitsui all have announced new headquarters in the EU, with three choosing Frankfurt, and one, the MUFG, choosing the Dutch capital, Amsterdam. The American giant Citigroup also confirmed that it would send some staff to Frankfurt, while Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein recently tweeted that he would "spend more time" in Frankfurt.
8 Nov 2017 Yen and Australian Dollar Trying to Press US Dollar In Asia Pacific money market trading until Wednesday afternoon on Wednesday, the general US dollar this time suffered only thin pressure from Asian major currencies as a form of retaliation after overnight experiencing gains that came after some data from the US that was better than market forecasts . So far the USD / JPY is temporarily at the level of 113.81 where at the previous trading close at the level of 113.99. For AUD / USD is temporarily at the level of 0.7646 compared to the previous close of trading at the level of 0.7643. Yuan or USD / CNY is temporarily moving at the level of 6.6405 after this morning closed at the level of 6.6396. The US JOLTs data for the period yesterday is still the same compared to the previous period, but the figures are bigger than market forecasts, so the data that measures the goodness of the job opening can actually make the US labor market tighten and can heat the US economy hotter than now. The issue of US tax reforms is also intriguing about the greenback's overnight buying spirit in which the progress of the tax policy being drilled in the US Congress can be trusted to have the spirit of improving the US economy even better and can make ease of the Fed rate hike. But gradually his echoes subsided after President Trump in his statement in South Korea's parliament earlier this morning declared that North Korea should not make any miscalculations while using nuclear power as an alternative energy and weapon. This has made tense the Korean Peninsula region today with concerns North Korea will launch missiles again. Investors seem to be lulled today by President Trump's visit to several countries in Asia. After visiting Japan, it is currently in South Korea, and will soon be visiting China, where it is important to see the sustainability of the world economy following Trump's comments early in his leadership that China is committing trade fraud to the United States. The market expects that Trump's visit to China does not have a policy that can create a rowdy market so that the market will react normally. While from economic data, China's trade surplus data is less in line with market expectations.
8 Nov 2017 EUR / USD Falls To Negative Area The EUR / USD currency pair again closed lower to the 1.15844 level after failing to hold above the critical level of 1.16030. The movement of EUR / USD had printed low 1.15542 but managed to rebound to return to positive area. That is above the level of 1.16030. This may indicate that bearish expectations continue to dominate the market despite economic data showing good numbers. The EUR / USD pair's sentiment is expected to remain bearish since its fall down the 1.16030 level. The movement below this level could continue to trigger bearish. Based on the hourly chart, EUR / USD is still likely to continue bearish as long as it is below the resistance level 1.16030. The farthest bearish target is 100% of Fibonacci Extension 1.14570.
8 Nov 2017 Rebound Failed Business, Bearish GBP / USD GBP / USD still failed to maintain its bullish movement on the previous day and again corrected to test the support level 1.31275 on yesterday's trading session. Namu, the fall of the GBP / USD currency pair managed to rebound away from the support level at 1.31275 and closed down slightly at 1.31367. The movement in yesterday's trading session was more due to the fluctuation of US dollar. Despite the excellent release of HPI Halifax data. Based on the hourly chart, GBP / USD has a bearish chance as long as it remains below the resistance1.31800 level that is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Support targets are seen at 1.31467 and 1.31275 levels. You can still take a chance of SELL at current condition with stop level at today's high level 1.31754 and target level at 1.31275.
9 Nov 2017 US Dollar Weeps Down on Wednesday's Slight Data Session, Market Now Waiting EU-EF and Jobless Claims On Wednesday, in addition to Canadian housing data, there was no economic data or key central bank agenda but the dollar was depressed slightly as traders fretted over the possibility of delaying US Presidential tax reform plan Donald Trump while the Canadian dollar spike also weighed on the greenback. Investors had reacted to media reports showing that members of the Republican Senate were considering a one-year delay for the implementation of corporate tax cuts. Another factor that also weighed on the US dollar was a stronger Canadian dollar after housing data surpassed expectations. On Wednesday Statistics Canada reported that building permits rose 3.8% in September, snapping economists' expectations for a 0.2% decline while a separate report showed that housing starts in Canada increased by 222,800 units in the past month, beating expectations for an increase of 210,000 housing units. The market reacted positively to the data so that USD / CAD ended down (0.37% weakening against the Canadian dollar) at C $ 1.2726, according to MetaTrader data used by the FS88 team. The slightly lower US dollar movement also came as investors turned to US President Donald Trump's arrival in China, where Trump is expected to hold long discussions on North Korea with Chinese president Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, pound sterling continued to add its losses on Tuesday against the US dollar with GBP / USD closing down 0.37% at $ 1.3116 on signs that the protracted Brexit negotiations are deteriorating. "The concerns about Brexit's potential without a deal (Brexit deal) are on the rise, as we move in 16 months to the UK exit from the European Union," said Joshua Mahony, a market analyst at IG. Today's forex market participants will remain focused on geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East as well as on the EU Economic Forecasts of the European Commission and data on US unemployment claims that can be attributed to the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
9 Nov 2017 Oil Prices Weak Down Again On High US Oil Inventories In Wednesday's trading session, oil prices continued to weaken after Brent and WTI oil prices had been in areas not seen since June 2015 or more than two years ago, where this time the combination of weak Chinese oil demand and rising US oil production made investors oil is worried about the abundance of world supply. As a result, the West Texas Intermediate contract price of December on the New York Mercantile Exchange division of the Comex division temporarily fell $ 0.38, or 0.66%, at $ 56.82 a barrel. Brent oil for January contracts on London's ICE Futures market meanwhile was down $ 0.18 or 0.28% at $ 63.51 a barrel. Geopolitical frictions in the Middle East have resonated slightly with the results of oil prices that are naturally pressure, but Brent oil is not too depressed due to the late-month meeting factor. As we know that the agenda at the evaluation meeting of the commitment to cut oil production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) on Nov 30, will certainly discuss the extension of that commitment until the end of 2018, said OPEC secretary general Mohammad Barkindo. In addition, Barkindo stated that it would invite other countries that had not previously joined the commitment to be invited to Vienna as well. But Saudi Arabia's attempt to persuade Brazil as the biggest oil producer in Latin America has failed to take part in the commitment so the market responds with the oil selling side. Although Baker Hughes last week announced that the number of US refineries is experiencing an active reduction in numbers but according to the EIA that US oil production will still rise in the foreseeable future. EIA expects its oil production to rise 720 thousand bpd to 9.95 million bpd by 2018, up from 668 thousand bpd to 9.92 million bpd last week, and forecast the average WTI price to rise 0.9% to $ 51, 04 per barrel. The EIA also reported that the US government's crude inventories last week increased by 2.2 million barrels. Gasoline oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels. Diesel and fuel oil inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels. According to the World Oil Outlook report until 2040, oil demand will rise an annual average of 1.2 million bpd from 95.4 million bpd to 102.3 million bpd. But China's oil demand in the month dropped drastically from 9 million bpd to just 7.3 million bpd.
9 Nov 2017 Gold Price Ends As Green Market Reforms US Tax Reforms On Wednesday gold prices rose to their highest level in almost three weeks as continued market worries about US tax reforms weighed on the US dollar and boosted demand for the precious metal. MetaTrader data used by the FS88 Research Division team showed Wednesday's session gold price rose to $ 1287.00 then closed positively at $ 1281.15, up 0.46 percent compared to Tuesday's close of $ 1274.95. Gold prices managed to reverse losses experienced in Tuesday's session as the US dollar came under pressure on visible signs that Senate members of the GOP (Republican Party) could thwart a US tax reshuffle plan by Donald Trump by delaying the implementation of corporate tax cuts, with a report showed that the Senate is considering a one-year delay. From the geopolitical side that has the potential to increase the demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, as far as the FS88 Research Division's observations, there has been no recent news from Trump's hot rhetoric when speaking in China requesting that neighboring North Korea's traditional neighbors and allies break their ties with Korea North and calling the country that Kim Jong Un controlled as hell. Similarly from the Middle East, especially about the escalation of tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran so far not heard the news that may lead to stronger demand for safe-haven gold. The price of gold is sensitive to the downside movement of the US potentially making gold prices cheaper for holders of foreign currencies, thus increasing demand for yellow metal. Rising gold prices also occurred because recent data indicate that traders are slightly less bearish on precious metals. Reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday showed gold net long positions rose to 193,100, from 191,400 in the previous week. But on Monday Commerzbank said that currently speculative financial investors are still away from gold so long positions (buy) of gold does not show any significant spikes.
9 Nov 2017 Canadian Dollar Strengthens Assisted Housing Data The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US currency on Wednesday but stuck in its recently formed range after failing to gain additional guidance from a speech the day before from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz. The Canadian currency has recovered from a three-and-a-half-month low of C $ 1.2916 less than two weeks ago and on Monday touched its strongest point in 12 days at C $ 1.2700. On Wednesday the USD / CAD currency pair moved in the range of C $ 1.2712 and C $ 1.2778. On Thursday before the afternoon USD / CAD was observed to move thin at C $ 1.2720. David Bradley, director of foreign exchange trading at Scotiabank, sees the currency pair as being range-bound. In a speech and press conference on Tuesday, Poloz maintained a neutral tone over the next interest rate movement, repeating the central bank's message that they monitor wage growth and inflation, as well as the ability of the Canadian economy to see how the economy adjusts to the July rate hikes and September. According to Bradley, the tone Poloz conveyed on Tuesday will not cause the market to think that the interest rate path will change from before he speaks. The Canadian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 1 percent in October and investors forecast no further rise until the first half of 2018. The Canadian dollar got a boost up against the US dollar after seasonally adjusted housing development data in Canada reported 222,771 units in October, up from 219,293 units revised in September. In separate domestic housing data, building permits rose 3.8 percent in September from August, the first increase in three months. On the same day, oil prices that became one of Canada's main exports, fell after US government data showed an increase in domestic crude oil production, a surprise that kept US oil stocks up. Another factor that has put pressure on oil prices is the decline in monthly imports of China's crude, though still offset by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
